Investment Planning Group

Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Spending All the Way

ClearSEM — Tue, 19 Nov 2024 16:11:54 +0000

Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Spending All the Way

Less is More

How many times have you said, “I am going the spend less this year” as you prepare for the holiday season? I cringe when I walk past the row of artificial Christmas trees set out in late October (and earlier) by my local big box store. I whisper the word “really?!” as I walk by. They are the villain in my story because I am convinced, I would spend less money if they started the holiday shopping season the day after Thanksgiving. Americans who wish they’d spent less over the holidays spent 24% more than those who were happy with their spending according to a survey done by Money Geek last year. Does it make me feel better knowing I am not alone? Not really.

The Gift That Keeps Giving

We have been programmed to believe we need to spend more on those we love. According to a recent holiday spending report by NerdWallet 28% of shoppers who used credit cards have not paid off the presents they purchased for family and friends last year. The real gift is to the credit card companies that on average charge 20% interest. This is near an all time high according to Bankrate. Will Santa be able to fill his sleigh when almost 2 out of 5 credit card holders are closed to or maxed? As credit card debt tops $1.14 trillion holiday shoppers are expected to spend more than they did last year. According to the National Federation of Retailers Americans will spend $989 billion this year. Nothing says “I love you” like going into debt.

The Holiday Hangover

Hangover – one definition offered by Webster’s Dictionary is “a letdown following great excitement or excess.” Sounds like how some feel when they open their January credit card statement after a month of overspending. 74% of all credit card purchases for the holidays are made by credit card. Half of all users will carry a balance each month. In 2023, MoneyGeek conducted a survey of 964 U.S. adults to understand how much Americans spent over the holidays, how they financed that spending, and how they feel about it now. Of those who took part in the study 23% wished they had spent less on holiday gifts. The real hangover is when they see how much interest they will pay this year compared to when the survey was done.

Three Things to Consider This Holiday Season

1. Make a list and check it twice. Making a list of exactly what you want to purchase can be an effective way of keeping yourself from overspending and adding to your debt.

2. Put credit card rewards to work. If you’ve already accumulated credit card rewards or points, the holidays can be a great time to use them.

3. Let your family and friends know. If you’re shopping with a smaller holiday budget this year, it can be helpful to let the people in your circle know.

Happy Holidays!

Disclosure
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Please visit our website www.planipg.com for more information and useful tools.

Sources: CNBC, MoneyGeek, NerdWallet

LPL Tracking ID: #655902-1

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Two Americas – Two Inflations

ClearSEM — Wed, 18 Sep 2024 15:04:15 +0000

Two Americas – Two Inflations

Two Americas

This phrase, “Two Americas” was originally used by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in his speech, “The Other America” to describe the lack of opportunities, jobs, and support for poor citizens. In 2004 Senator John Edwards made it into a catchphrase that referred to social stratification, a term at that time used by USA Today. During the presidential campaign of 2004, candidate Edwards spoke about the two Americas: the America of the privileged and wealthy, and the America that lived from paycheck to paycheck. That same year Opensecrets.org ranked Senator Edwards’ net worth at number 20 in the US Senate with a modest $18,199,579. This means 19 other Senators in the U.S. Congress were worth more than $18 million. Yes, Senator, there are two Americas.

Two Inflations

Inflation is slowing. Right? Guess it depends on which America you ask. Certainly, one part of America doesn’t believe inflation is getting better. Price increases for certain items, like cable, are cooling. Even prices for vehicles, gasoline, TVs, and plane tickets have dropped over the past year. But prices for many of the things that are hard to do without are still going up at a higher rate than items that are “cooling.” Rent and electricity bills are up more than 10% over the past two years while car insurance costs are up nearly 40% according to the Labor Department’s index. Housing is by far the biggest monthly expense for U.S. households and if you are starting a new family expect to pay close to $1,500 per month in daycare according to the Wall Street Journal. Yes, we can cut out dinner and a movie in favor of a home-cooked meal but other spending is hard to avoid.

The Other Inflation for the Other America

The Other America (OA) believes inflation is getting better. The OA has investments from years of investing in a 401K plan and has benefited from the bull market. The OA has already raised a family and no longer pays for child care or college tuition. The OA doesn’t rent; they own a home. For those in the OA class still working, the commute is not as long. They don’t drive as much and spend less money on gasoline and replacing cars. This OA doesn’t need to cut out dinner and a movie.

I guess Senator Edwards was right. There are Two Americas.

Wall Street Journal. “Inflation Costs Are Rising, Affecting Housing, Utilities, and Consumer Purchases.” The Wall Street Journal, September 12, 2024.

Wikipedia. “Inflation in the United States.” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia, last modified September 2024.

OpenSecrets.org. “Lobbying on Economic Policy and Inflation.” OpenSecrets, 2024.

LPL Tracking ID: #621982-1

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It’s Not How You Feel, It’s How You Look

ClearSEM — Wed, 12 Jun 2024 13:48:33 +0000

It’s Not How You Feel, It’s How You Look

It’s Not How You Feel, It’s How You Look – Billy Crystal

Darling, You Look Marvelous

When I was a young 7-year-old boy, my mother decided it was time to teach me an important lesson. Women care about the way they look. (My first lesson about girls was getting kicked in the shin meant they liked you). As I recall, I had a lot of bruises back then. My mother advised me to tell women they look 22 whenever age came up. Imagine the response I got from the girls in my second-grade class when I told them they looked 22. Let the kicking begin!

Fast forward to the present day of glamorous women, and men with bruise-less shins. We dress to impress on job interviews where appearances matter more than how we feel. On the other hand, the U.S. economy does care how we feel! – Sometimes.

Feeling Sentimental

Perception is reality. I have heard it said that you know it’s a recession when your neighbor loses their house, but it’s a depression when you lose yours. “Your economy” is not the same as your neighbor but you both are living in the same “real economy”. The real economy measures activities related to the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services. The real economy doesn’t care how you feel. Its data is used to measure GDP, employment rates, and trade balances amongst other things. It also doesn’t go shopping with you when you are buying eggs or paying for gas. That is when your economy kicks in. Prices for goods and services go up during inflation and rarely come back down when inflation is over. They simply return to a normal inflation rate of around 3%. We don’t feel better until our wages catch up. The reporter on your favorite financial news network may report that inflation is better (the real economy), and you say it is not as you continue paying $100 per bag at the grocery store (your economy). You may both be right!

The Consumer Sentiment Index, also known as consumer confidence, reflects how U.S. consumers feel about the current and future state of the economy. One day you may get a call from someone asking how you feel. Fear not if the call is from the University of Michigan, they are not trying to sell you a timeshare. The monthly survey they conduct is part of an index used to spot certain economic trends.

Get My Vibe

In recent years, the concept of the “vibe economy” has altered how we perceive value and influence. This relatively new measure of how people feel is driven by social media, influencers, and trends that capture public attention. The “vibe” is based on emotional and cultural impact rather than CPI and other traditional measures of the economy. A product or brand’s success in the vibe economy might be measured by social media engagement and viral trends.

And I thought it meant how a group of hippies leaving a Grateful Dead concert feel. What do I know?

The Vibe Economy – read “In This Economy” by Kyla Scanlon

Consumer Confidence – www.conference-board.og

Real Economy Data – www.bea.gov

Disclosure

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss. Please visit our website www.planipg.com for more information and useful tools.

Tracking ID: 590007

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Enter the Fab Four

ClearSEM — Mon, 08 Apr 2024 15:05:26 +0000

Enter the Fab Four

Thank You Sir May I Have Another

According to Brian Swint from Barron’s, in the first quarter of 2024, the S&P 500 had its best first three months since 2019, gaining more than 10%. Since 1961, the market has gained at least 9% in the first quarter 13 times. It went on to rise again in the second quarter nine of those times and finished the year higher in every instance but one. With the S&P 500 up over 20% in 2023, a fair question to ask is will it happen again? Back to back returns of over 20% are rare. Except for the period from 1995 to 1999, it only happened 2 other times since 1928 according to macrotrends.net.

Party Like it’s 2029

In the mid to late 1990s the S&P 500 experienced an unprecedented 5 consecutive years of market gains, with 4 out of 5 years returning over 20%. 1999 trailed the other 4 years with a respectable 19.53% return. Is this the new 1990’s? It’s hard to say since the rally in 2023 was driven by 7 stocks that grew double and triple digits. Now they make up 29% of the S&P 500 “Enter The Magnificent 7”. According to David Thomas of Forbes these 7 stocks “grew to the largest concentration the S&P 500 has ever had”. If you removed these 7 stocks, the 2023 return would be 8% instead of 26% according to Mr. Thomas. 8% is still good and certainly within the range of historical returns. Will the 2020s be like the 1990s? It may be premature to party like it’s 1999 (kids ask your parents about the artist formally known as “Prince”)

The Fab Four (You May Want to Ask Your Grandparents…)

I want to hold your hand, or maybe the 4 stocks left from the magnificent 7. “The Magnificent Seven trade is beginning to fizzle—and yet, the stock market is still heading higher,” says the Wall Street Journal in the April 1st edition. The S&P 500 climbed 10% in the first quarter led by the newly dubbed Fab Four. The Fab Four are responsible for nearly half of the S&P 500’s first-quarter advance, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices. It is good to see the market still rally without stocks like Apple and Tesla. The former members of the Magnificent 7 were both down double digits in the first quarter. This means other groups are taking part in the rally. In fact, all of the S&P 500’s sectors, except real estate, logged gains in the first quarter.

Most notably, I have learned how to use National Lampoon’s Animal House, Prince, and the Beatles in the same article. Very impressive!

Disclosure

Tracking ID: 562458

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The Worse Recession That Never Happened

ClearSEM — Thu, 08 Feb 2024 19:44:08 +0000

The Worse Recession That Never Happened

The 2023 non-recession

By mid-2022, every single investment company our team spoke with predicted a recession in 2023. The only difference was how deep. The recession that never happened is not the first time the analysts got it wrong. As the saying goes, they predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions. Michael Gapen, chief US economist for Bank of America called 2023 “the so-called most widely forecasted recession in the history of mankind” His point as written in Yahoo Finance on December 28th was that consumers and businesses expected a recession, so they prepared by borrowing ahead of time at cheaper rates. This kept them insulated from the impact of higher rates which would have sent us into a recession. I like our explanation better. Sometimes they just get it wrong, and that’s OK. Especially for those who didn’t try to time the markets.

Perspective

In all fairness to the analyst community, there have been 6 inflationary episodes (not including the one we are in currently) since WWII. During the same period, we have had 13 recessions. Each of the 6 inflationary episodes were closely followed by recessions. In fact, we spent most of the 1970s in a state of inflation that hosted 4 recessions from 1969 to 1982. You would think the stock market crash of 2001 (AKA the dot.com bubble burst) and 9/11 would have been met with inflationary due to Gov’t stimulus, right? Not even close. We had to wait till 2008 to see the next period of inflation. Key takeaway – significant economic episodes are difficult to predict and even harder to try to time the entry and exit of investments.

The Election

Oh, and there is that. We can’t have a discussion about the markets in an election year without taking a historical perspective; so here goes. According to the 2021 Dimensional Funds report, “the market has been favorable overall in 20 of the 24 election years from 1928 to 2020, only showing negative returns four times”. Year three of a president’s term is usually the strongest year for the market, followed by year four (then the second, and finally the first). The S&P 500 index doesn’t significantly favor either party. I like to say that Wall Street is not blue or red, it is green($).

OK, here is where the hate mail comes in. Between 1968–1978 and 2000–2009, both under Republican presidents, the S&P 500 remained relatively stagnant. In contrast, the S&P 500 advanced under every Democratic president since 1933. Another study found in Marketinsider.com found that since 1947 the stock market (S&P 500) posted an average annual total return of 10.8% under a Democratic president, compared to 5.6% for a Republican president. It should be noted that external forces such as the oil crisis in the 1970s and the terrorist attack on 9/11 may have understated stock market returns under Republican presidents. The same study showed that the market initially responded better to a Republican victory, while a Democratic victory tends to outperform in the long term.

Disclosure

LPL Tracking #537685

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Are Bonds the New Stock Market?

ClearSEM — Thu, 07 Dec 2023 20:46:40 +0000

Are Bonds the New Stock Market?

It’s not your parent’s bond market.

Long gone are the days when you invested in a government bond and received a sheet of coupons you cut out every 6 months to claim the interest at your local bank. The US Government issued bonds to finance debt going all the way back to the birth of our nation. They were essentially IOUs issued by the Continental Congress to raise money for fighting the British in the Revolutionary War. Today they are used to finance the general operations of the U.S. Government, but they also trade like stocks. Until 2022, bonds rarely lost money and when they did, stock prices usually went up. 2022 marked a historic year for bonds when they entered into a simultaneous correction with the stock market. As a result, many financial advisors have included alternative investments in portfolios to reduce stock and bond market risk. No, it is not your parent’s bond market anymore.

A new bond market

Since 1976, there have only been 5 years where the US bond market recorded losses, with 2022 being the worst. According to the Wall Street Journal, the previous losses occurred in 1994, 1999, 2013, and 2021 and were small in comparison to the record drop of 13% in bond prices in 2022. The small and infrequent losses in bonds have made them a favorite of widows and orphans, or at least that is what people say. Investors use bonds to diversify the risk of the stock market. That didn’t work in 2022 – one of only 4 years when we experienced a simultaneous correction of stocks and bonds. People can always choose to eliminate stock market risk by not investing in the market. Bonds on the other hand impact us all in one way or another.

How can bonds impact me if I don’t invest in them?

You may have heard that bonds prices and yields have an inverse relationship. In plain English, this means when bond prices go down interest rates usually go up. There may be other factors, but that is how it usually works. Most of us are impacted by the bond market whether we realize it or not. As a first-time home buyer, it tells us what type of home we can afford since a larger part of our payment goes to interest. It also impacts us if we are selling a home since it may be too difficult to find a buyer who can afford higher interest rates. Of course, it impacts credit card interest. You may not borrow money, but your grocer probably does and if they have to pay more in interest, they will likely pass it on for you. So as you see, there are many ways bond prices impact us. So what can we do? Save more, borrow less, and review the allocation in your investment portfolio.

LPL Tracking 512613

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Buddy can you spare a Trillion!

ClearSEM — Fri, 01 Sep 2023 14:22:46 +0000

Buddy can you spare a Trillion!

For the first time credit card debt for US consumers has topped $1 trillion. While you’re at it throw in another $1.6 trillion for student loan debt. If you use the word “trillion” enough it tends to lose its meaning. When I was a kid a trillion dollars was real money. We can’t have a serious conversation about debt without including the US National Debt, sitting at a cool $32 trillion. The US has not been debt free since President Jackson sold land to pay off our $75 million dollar debt in 1835. Since then, our debt has grown considerably but so has our wealth.

When is debt good? (or at least productive)

Higher credit card spending and loans can stimulate the economy and contribute to GDP growth. In the 1980s, Americans began borrowing to maintain a middle-class life which continued from 1983 to 2008 when credit card volume increased twenty-fold. Higher consumer spending can also be good for businesses, which can lead to job creation and economic growth. All because consumers decided to access their credit cards.

When is debt bad?

High levels of consumer debt can create a burden on families when a significant portion of their income is used to pay interest. This can lead to reduced discretionary spending, saving, and investment. Higher interest rates play an important role as consumers focus on paying off high interest rate debt rather than spending. Although this sounds responsible, it is not always good for the economy when the consumer chooses to pay debt over spending.

But my uncle likes to spend money.

Yea, there is that. Uncle Sam! As I said, we can’t have a serious conversation about debt without including the US National Debt. Attacking my uncle is a popular pastime for those looking to score political points, which I admit to doing. The primary purpose of issuing debt is to finance government operations and programs when taxes are not enough. Government spending, like consumer credit card spending can help grow the economy. But how much Government debt is too much? As of Q1 2023 the US debt was 118% of GDP, which was the same as it was in 1946. Higher taxes and economic growth reduced the debt level of the 1940’s. It is not clear what it will take this time, but higher taxes shouldn’t be ruled out. We measure government debt as compared to a percentage of GDP, pretty much the way a Mercedes Benz may be expensive for the fast-food employee but not the owner of the restaurant.

Sources:

Smithsonian

Oxford Research Encyclopedia

Debt.org

Wikipedia

LPL Tracking 1-05378088

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A bull walks into a bar…..

ClearSEM — Wed, 14 Jun 2023 17:35:00 +0000

A bull walks into a bar…..

The bull is confronted by a bear who says “what are you doing in my bear market economy? The bull answered, “looking for AI”. You are looking for artificial intelligence in a bear market economy? replied the bear.

The eurozone has sunk into recession and some economists fear the United States is next. We’re worrying about rate hikes, inflation, lower spending, layoffs, surging mortgage costs and a war in Europe according to CNN Business. That’s a strange place to find a bull market. “You tend to see bull markets coincide with economic expansions, not economic contractions,” said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist for Wells Fargo Investment Institute. So why are there bulls running around in a bear economy? It comes down to just two letters: AI.

The Skinny Bull

The S&P 500 rallied June 8^th to end the day in a bull market. The 20% surge since the low reached on October 12, 2022, brought an end to the bear market. Why is it that so many investors do not feel the euphoria usually associated with a bull market? Enter the Skinny Bull. The S&P’s gains have been carried by a few technology companies. That’s coming to be known as a skinny bull market, and it wouldn’t take much to drag those few names down to undermine the advance. On the other hand, it is possible for this rally to broaden and become more inclusive.

The Generals

LPL Research wrote in its May 30^th market commentary that the Generals, namely Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon were responsible for more than 100% of the S&P 500 returns. Without the Generals, the index would have been down 0.3% as of May 30^th. There are plenty of studies on bulls and bears, but not on skinny bulls. Perhaps it’s time we consider a third animal for markets like these.

LPL Tracking # 1-05373203

Sources:

Barrons.com

CNN Financial

LPL Research

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Please visit our website www.planipg.com for more information and useful tools

The post A bull walks into a bar….. appeared first on Investment Planning Group.

Sell in May and go away – and then what?

ClearSEM — Fri, 05 May 2023 17:47:36 +0000

Sell in May and go away – and then what?

The age old Wall Street adage “sell in May and go away” is one of many captions that work, until they don’t. It suggests selling all of your stocks on May 1^st and staying out of the market until November 1^st. This somewhat outdated superstition can be tracked back to the early 20^th century when trading volume was significantly impacted by the extended summer vacation season of Wall Street traders.

The track record of the “sell in May and go away” adage has been mixed over the years. While the stock market has historically performed poorly during the summer months “going away” has only worked twice since the great financial crisis in 2008. In fact you would have only benefited once between 2010 and 2020. In every other year of that decade, by staying invested from May through October you would have outperformed the market according to www.thebalancemoney.com

-and then what?

It’s the economy, what else?? Are we experiencing inflation or are we in a recession? The truth is it depends on who you ask. An economist will answer, without qualification that we are in an inflationary episode. Yet most people I ask tell me they think we are in a recession. The relationship between inflation and recession is complex because it is more than looking at data, its often about how we feel. In some cases high inflation can lead to a recession if it becomes uncontrollable, and erodes confidence in the economy. It comes down to a matter of personal perspective. When your neighbors lose their home it is a recession. When you lose yours it’s a depression.

The good news

We have established that you do not have to “sell in May and go away”. If you have a plan, stick with it. This is not to say we don’t have financial challenges ahead. We do, but we are not likely to have both inflation and a recession at the same time. Raising interest rates to combat inflation can lead to a recession if they are increase so much that the purchasing power of everyday American families erodes. By historical standards, rates are much lower than they were in 1980. The high interest rates lead to a severe recession from 1980 to 1982.

Sources:

Investopedia.com

Forbes.com

CNBC.com

MarketWatch.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Please visit our website www.planipg.com for more information and useful tools

LPL Tracking #1-05369339

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Don’t fight the fed

ClearSEM — Wed, 08 Mar 2023 17:47:44 +0000

Don’t fight the fed

Don’t fight the Fed.

“The Fed”, the informal reference to the central banking system of the globes largest economy formed in 1913 to make the financial system of the U.S. more safe, stable, and flexible. Sometimes “the Fed” refers to a single man, the Chairman of the FOMC. Today, that person happens to be Jerome Powell and nobody I know wants to pick a fight with him. So, what does it mean when you hear “don’t fight the Fed”? It is a mantra that suggests you align your choices with the actions of the Fed. This means you should invest aggressively when rates are low, and conservatively when rates are high. Nonsense! You should never invest in a manner inconsistent with your tolerance for risk, and when possible, invest with a goal in mind. Additionally, “don’t fight the Fed” is simply not a perfect science. From March 16th, 2022, to February 1st, 2023, the Fed raised interest rates 4.5%. Half of the increases happened between March 16th and July 27th when the S&P 500 dropped 7.6% and the other half occurred between September 21st and February 1st when the S&P 500 rose 8.71% according to Yahoo Finance charts. Looking at this last rate hike cycle it appears the age-old mantra “don’t fight the Fed” gives us a success half of the time.

The Powell Doctrine

After spending countless hours combing through the public domain looking for someone who has identified the “Jerome Powell Doctrine” I fear that I have come up empty handed. Perhaps that is because some feel he could have done a better job. Consider me an interested party who was once critical of Chairman Powell for not acting sooner but now open to new ideas on how and when the Fed acted. Once inflation hits the target rate we will be in a better position to judge. I have become less critical after seeing inflation drop from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 6.4% in February of 2023. We still have a way to go, but we are heading in the right direction. Most Fed chairs in modern history have made their mark on it. Since I may be the first to identify the “Powell Doctrine” I will describe it as simply waiting until you see the white of inflations eyes, then hit it with the biggest hammer you can find. In time we will see how that works.

Other fed chairs

Fed Chair Bernanke gave us “quantitative easing”. It can get complicated but in short, he needed to stimulate the economy so he cut interest rates to 0%. 2008 was a challenging time and cutting interest rates was not enough. Quantitative easing contributed to the economic recovery that followed. Prior to Bernanke we had Greenspan. In contrast to his successor, his policies were not very complicated. Chairman Greenspan was difficult to understand. His language was dubbed “Green speak” because it appeared complicated. For the exception of 1994, he raised and lowered interest rates often, and in small increments. This was the practice well before Greenspan in the 1970’s and proved ineffective for taming what seemed to be a decade of inflation. In 1996 Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech which resulted in 3 straight years of rate hikes followed by the same amount of time cutting rates. And finally in our little walk down Fed memory lane we have Paul Volcker, the great inflation fighter. Chairman Volcker in the early 1980’s put an end to inflation when he slammed the brakes on the economy and increased interest rates to an unthinkable 20%. By 1983 inflation retreated to just over 3%. It will be interesting to see how history treats Chairman Powell. If Powell is able to tame inflation without the economy going into recession he will likely be treated well by historians.

Sources:

NPR.org

Wikipedia

Bankrate.com

Thebalance.com

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Please visit our website www.planipg.com for more information and useful tools

LPL Tracking # 05362968

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